July 29, 2017

Sales Estimate for Holy Gardens Greenhills Bangin Expansion

This is a revision of the sales estimate for Calamba, partially benchmarked too from Malasiqui study.   (However Malasiqui estimate seem to be on the low side;  However the Malasiqui study is very competitive for the area.

A Objectives:

1. To show the feasibility of Holy Gardens Greenhillls expansion

2.  To have something to show GDC, to motivate them

3.  To serve as an objective (a lighthouse) for stakeholders to push harder so that the planners will not mess up with our timelines  -  how much we are losing  missing.

4.  To sell more than a billion for the bangin and have half billion to share

The sellers are waiting  for this and raring to go. Sell.

B  Reality:

1.  The planners are delayed.  We have to refer the plan to an architect because of:

     1.  Having many lots as Body Crypts (not much value added)

     2.  Putting lots at the area of the Way of the Cross.l

     3.  The semi circle road eats up wastes lot of  spaces that could be as much as 5% (say 5,000 sm

     4. The developer has spent nearly P500,000 on the plans (topo, the site grading plan, architectural plan, as buit)   And will spend additional P5,000,000 on Jesus Christ 60 footer image, and the way of the cross, (each set costing an average of P300,000 each)

What:

     The project involves the development and marketing of the  11 hectares (110,000 sm) of the bangin portion of the Holy Gardens Greenhills. It is at the insistence of the patriarch of GDC Don Emilio Tanedo that we are at this stage.   AUG initially refused to go any further because of huge expenses that will be incurred.

   The project may result (subject to the revision of plans) sales of over P1,000,000,000;  The developer expects a 60% 40% sharing on the net after deducting development costs

C.  Computations:

110,000 x .65  =   71,000 sm/2.5 sm per plot         28,600
                                         Average selling price   40,000

                                        Total  Sales          1,144, 500,000

                                        NLP                        572,000,000

Alternative                      Gross Sharing 60-40

                                                           60%    343,200,000

                                                           40%    228,000,000

                          Net sharing after development cost

                                                                      572,000,000

                                          less dev cost          70,000,000

                                                                     502,000,000

                                               55%               276,100,000

                                              45%                225,000,000

Solution:

 We can up the sharing by raising our average selling price from 40t to 50%

Thus   28,600,plots x 50T       =   1,430,000,000 vs  (114,000,000 or increase of 300,000,000

Sales program for Lawns, Niches and GE (divided into pre selling pre development and development states

Most of the sales except the pre selling will be 0 interest, no down payment, outright commission, 60 months to pay across the board.;   Directed to PTM; B and C Market of Calamba, Sto Tomas, Cabuyao and may be  Sta Rosa

       Populations from  2010   census:

       Calamba                          389,377
       Sto Tomas                        124,737
       Cabuyao                           248,436
       Sta Rosa                          384,670


Total catchment population     1,147,220

Total number of house holds       250,000

Percentage of B C D market   (59%)   147,000

Our inventories of 28,000/147,000 = 19% of total demand


D  Allocation of plots:

      80% of the plots will be lawn      or 22,800

      10% for niches                                 715

      10% for GE                                     238


E.  Selling price program

    LAWN

    A.  Pre selling:

    1,000 plots for cash investment, 2x your money after 5 years.  This will be for prime, super prime, premium plots (which we will sell for the customers too)

       CASH

         Number                        Price                Total Sales

        200                            P30,000               6,000,000

        200                              32,000               6,400,000

        200                              34,000               6,800,000

                                          Total                  19,200,000

     50% DOWN PAYMENT, 6 MONTHS TO PAY, 0 INTEREST

      200                               32,000               6,400,000

      200                               34,000               6,800,000

                                                                  13,200,000

   Total Pre Selling                                       32,400,000

        B.  Pre Development Price

                                                                 

     Our SBU PC, our lending investor can find this investment attractive getting 20% per annum, 2x your money in 5 years. However, the developer reserves this for development purposes in order that the proejct may be finished only in 5 years


            Number      MA          TSP                  Total Sales

          1,000            600         36,000                 36,000,000

           1,000          650          39,000                 39,000,000

           1,000          700          42,000                 42,000,000

           1,000          750          45,000                 45,000,000

          1,000           800          48,000                 48,000,000

          1,000           850          51,000                 51,000,000

          1,000          900           54,000                54,000,000

          8,000                                                  315,000,000

  C. Developed Price

         3,000       1,000            60,000              180,000,000

         3,000       1,100            66,000              198,000,000

         2,000       1,200            72,000              144,000,000

         2,000       1,300            78,000              156,000,000

        2,800        1,400            84,000              235,200,000

     12,800                                                     913,200,000

    Total  Lawn 22,800                                  1,228,000,000

     NICHES

    Pre selling

        15                              150,000                 2,250,000

        20                               155,000                3,100,000

        50                               160,000                8,000,000

                                          Total                   15,600,000

   Pre Development

     50              2,750           165,000                8,250,000

     50              2,800           168,000                8,400,000

     50              2,900            174,000              10,440,000

    100             3,000            180,000               18,000,000

    250             3,200            192,000               48,000,000

   500

   Developed

   130               3,500          210,000               27,300,000

                                                                  135,990,000

                        Total  Niches 715                 151,590,000


GARDEN ESTATE

     A.  Pre selling

     8                             450,000                      3,600,000

    10                            460,000                      4,600,000

    20                           480,000                       9,600,000
                                   
                                    Total                         17,800,000

    B. Pre development

   50           8,500          510,000                   25,500,000

   25          9,000           540,000                  13,000,000

   25         10,000          600,000                  15,000,000

  25          12,000         720,000                   18,000,000

   C Developed

  25          14,000         840,000                   21,000,000

  50          15,000        900,0000                  45,000,000
    
                                        Total                138,000,000

                                       Total GE            155,800,000

Recap:

                                         No                     PHP value

  
           Lawn               22,800                    1,228,000,000

          Niches                  715                      151,590,000

          GE                      238                       155,800,000

                             Total                            1,535,390,000

                                        x 50%                 767,695,000

                                       Less DC                70,000,000

                                     For sharing            700,000,000      

Show to JC para igawa ng cash flow





--
Jorge U. Saguinsin

To "be the best, do your best, expect the best" always

N.B.   The information contained herein are private and confidential in nature.  The sender does not assume any damage that may arise from improper use of the email contained. ;  especially if the information in this communication falls into the wrong hands causing damage and loss. to the company or any other parties.

1 comment:

  1. With the bangin expansion, we can help a lot to create wealth to our stakeholders, sellers and employees. As a Sales Admin Assistant I will motivate them to sell more. To help them and provide the needed marketing tools, create more promos and events and make sure that the commission pay on time.

    Marjorie B. Miranda

    ReplyDelete

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